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How to analyze home advantage in football

How to analyze home advantage in football
Some elements are important to be analyzed to measure the home team's advantage.
by Academia   |   comments 0

When placing a bet on a football match, several elements are important to be analyzed, as they directly influence the team's performance and, consequently, your bet. One of the most important elements when evaluating and choosing an event is the fact of who is the home team of the match and how this can bring advantages, since it is common sense that those who work in their stadium have better results.


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If we take the best leagues in Europe, we can see that the home team's advantage was on average 60% in the previous season, in Italy it was over 62% and in Germany it was around 58%. Regardless of which year is analyzed, the numbers remain within this pattern, proving that even in a simplistic analysis the home team really do get the better of it. Going a little deeper, it is important to understand and read the reasons that lead to these numbers, as it is not all teams, and it is not all the time that these results are positive.

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Even though it may be a controversial issue, the referee's partiality for the home teams is a determining factor, not leaving room for doubting dishonesty, but even for psychological and natural human being issues. When betting, it is important to join these pieces with the level of importance of the match, the characteristic of the team's behavior towards the referee choices, in addition to the difference in weight of the shirt between the two clubs.
 
It is clear that the fans, the most precious part of football, have a decisive role many times. The way the fan behaves, encouraging his team, at the same time as trying to frighten the opponent, are characteristics that can be directly influenced and that differ greatly from one team to another. How many times in recent decades have we heard about the mystique of Bombonera, making it clear that Boca Juniors was a team that took direct advantage of its territory, causing many visitors to enter already feeling the psychological pressure.
 
Depending on the country, displacement fatigue is another issue when analyzing how the home team can take advantage. While in Brazil it is common to travel over 2,000 km for a national match, in England the longest distances in the Premier League are a little over 500 km. It's a big difference, influencing the quality of competition and the performance of teams in a match.
 
Of course, what speaks louder is still the quality of the teams. Top teams, used to winning their leagues and playing for titles, have less influence on these issues. They benefit when they play indoors, and they don't feel so much when they travel to play as a visitor. However, the weaker the team in the competition, the more the home factor is decisive to win their points. The difference in performances and the final result of the match is much greater in technically inferior teams, in which they place the home factor as essential to achieve their goals, even if it is to avoid relegation.
 
This only proves that when it comes to betting, we cannot draw conclusions just by looking at the total numbers, even if in the end it shows a clear advantage for the home team. In addition to comparing the two teams and how they benefit from acting under their domain, motivational and psychological factors act directly, not just the technical part of the game. These are small details that make all the difference when it comes to finding a value bet, and the principal issue is one of them.


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